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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still