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Increasing concerns are present over the possibility of military engagement among Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational rhetoric has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Ties between the both governments have often been tense. Following a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a extensive maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

Five years later, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and hinted at the desire to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Claims

Amid ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that attempts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of major military movements in the border areas between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast completion events of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Previous Roots of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this arrangement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended civil war ensued, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Although this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations remained at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders endorsed a statement that the conflict was concluded – a action that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet relations have later worsened anew.