A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
